Flying taxis and electric planes are coming – or are they?

In the UK, the HS2 fast rail service is being built to connect London and Birmingham. The high-speed trains will then continue to Manchester, the North West and Scotland using the conventional railway network. But, like many high speed rail projects around the world, it has faced delays and rising costs.

This prompted the UK Times newspaper to suggest that flying taxis will become the vehicle of choice instead of rapid rail.

Will flying taxis and electric planes also start to be presented as the high-tech mobility solution for Aotearoa New Zealand, linking not only major centres but also small towns across the country? Or is reviving rail still the most realistic way to provide a wide range of kiwis better mobility choices as well as achieving other goals including emission reductions and the wise use of renewable electricity?

The New Zealand Infrastructure Commission/Te Waihanga has just published its draft National Infrastructure Plan. For rail they note:

‘Our rail networks are characterised by very low levels of investment and low usage, for both passenger and freight rail. The length of our network is comparable to our peers, although our network electrification is low. New Zealand’s rail services also score comparatively poorly on measures of rail quality.’

While we have an extensive rail network, already linking most cities and towns, it is under-utilised and needs expensive upgrading if it is to be used more for freight and passengers. So, as we work towards investing in future infrastructure, a question is should we leave the old technology behind, and rely mainly on new technology to solve mobility challenges?

Flying taxis

There have been startups all over the world promoting flying cars in various forms and small electric planes for regional travel. In this vision, a passenger might hop into a flying taxi in the small Hawkes Bay town of Waipukerau, be whisked to Napier airport, then connect with a flight in an electric plane to Wellington.

In an interview in late 2021, the then CEO of Volocopter set out his vision for his company:

‘Volocopter is working on three types of eVTOL vehicles: the VoloCity, a two-seater urban air taxi; the VoloConnect, for traveling between cities and suburbs; and the VoloDrone, for transporting cargo. VoloIQ, the company’s digital platform, is designed to connect all of these services and allow consumers to book flights easily. Volocopter is one of several eVTOL companies that have recently gotten considerable traction in the investor community; the company has raised more than $350 million in equity and has formed partnerships to bring its services to a number of cities, including Los Angeles and Paris.’

In December 2024, Volocopter entered insolvency proceedings, while announcing it would continue its quest for funding.

In what now seems increasingly like a fantasy document, in 2022 the Victoria state government released its AAM strategy document. In a ministerial forward it is stated:

‘Globally, the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector is moving fast, with several companies seeking to enter the market from 2024-25. This fast-approaching horizon further emphasises the necessity for governments to develop the foundational structures, systems and market frameworks required for AAM.

The use of AAM in Victoria has the potential to revolutionise logistics, service delivery, emergency services, regional connectivity and passenger transport – providing opportunities for improvements in safety, time, cost and noise. As a zero-emission transport mode, AAM will also support the decarbonisation of our society.’

One of the strongest critics of flying taxis has been international energy and transport commentator Michael Barnard. In a series of articles, he has questioned their potential. In late 2024, under the title ‘EVTOLs Remain Grounded As Dreams Of Jetsons Lifestyle Doppler Into Future’, he sets out the failures of many startups and finishes with the comment ‘For all those wishing for a Jetsons future — you know who you are — let it subside into wistful daydreaming instead of active hoping.’

Electric planes

So, what about electric planes? For relatively short trips, especially across stretches of water, they are being promoted as the best hope for directly decarbonising aviation in Aotearoa New Zealand. But is this false hope? Or worse, is this a predatory delay tactic to prevent more realistic, already available, options being supported?

Robert McLauchlan and I have been exploring the progress of electric plane startups for a number of years. In 2021 they were a hot topic and recently Robert revisited the topic. At the time we:

“…looked at three startups (Heart Aerospace’s ES-19, Eviation’s Alice, and the Lilium Jet) to see if their claims stacked up. They all faced serious difficulties with weight, range (especially the reserve range required for safety), and unproven technology.

Two of the three (Lilium and Eviation, the latter pre-ordered by Air New Zealand) went bankrupt in February 2025, leaving only Heart Aerospace. Their ES-19 (pre-ordered by Sounds Air) has undergone two radical redesigns. In May 2024, an innovative wing strut was added and the range was halved to 200 km, extended by a serial kerosene generator (ideally used only as a reserve). Later, the wing strut disappeared, and two of the four electric motors were replaced by standard kerosene turboprops – essentially a parallel hybrid. No test aircraft has yet been flown or even built, but commercial operation is still promised for 2030.”

For those wanting a deeper dive into electric planes, see Robert’s blog which includes a link to a presentation he gave to the Royal Aeronautical Society’s New Zealand Division.

Airlines globally have committed to net zero emissions by 2050. This means cutting emissions by 1/3 in the next 8 years. Yet, through growth, they are doing everything possible to increase emissions. Their current greenwashing includes suggesting major technological solutions are coming soon.

Electric trains

So back to trains. Trains are a rapidly evolving technology, with battery electric trains now starting to operate commercially. Trains powered by overhead lines have operated for over a century, including electric trains beginning services in Wellington in 1938. There are self-driving trains already operating in some urban areas.

Globally, there are now electric ferries operating. some now plying relatively long stretches of water.

Revisiting the person wanting to get from Waipukerau to Wellington, a revived Bay Express, battery powered and running faster on upgraded tracks, would probably take about the same time to reach central Wellington as a person taking a flying taxi to Napier airport, switching to an electric plane, then catching an electric bus into Wellington. The train would also use far less renewable electricity.

Ideally, decisions on investing in transport infrastructure should consider many outcomes, including staying within all planetary boundaries.

Flying taxis are likely to remain a Jetsons fantasy. Even if there are major technological breakthroughs, commercial electric planes will not replace our domestic fleet of aircraft anytime soon. But electric regional and inter-regional passenger trains, as well as electric buses and ferries, are climate and mobility solutions already available. With policy support and suitable investment, a network of them could be operating in Aotearoa New Zealand before the end of this decade.